Failure to register as a predictor of sex offense recidivism: the big bad wolf or a red herring?

This quasi-experimental study analyzed the recidivism outcomes of 1,125 sexual offenders in two groups. The first group comprised 644 registered sex offenders who were convicted of a sex crime and at some point failed to register after release from prison. The comparison group contained 481 registered sex offenders released from prison during a similar time frame who did not fail to register after their release. The groups were then tracked for both sexual and nonsexual offenses to determine whether failure to register under Megan's Law is predictive of reoffending. Failure to register was not a significant predictor of sexual recidivism, casting doubt on the belief that sex offenders who are noncompliant with registration are especially sexually dangerous. Few differences between groups were detected, but FTR offenders were more likely to have sexually assaulted a stranger and to have adult female victims, further challenging the stereotype of the child predator who absconds to evade detection. Potential policy implications are discussed.